Analysis: Deal for Reducing Military Tensions with North Korea Could Go ‘Back to Square One’

It's unlikely that South Korea would respond to North Korean violations in kind, but a breakdown in the hotlines or other communication would be dangerous, said former General Park Cheol-kyun, who worked on international policy at South Korea's Defense Ministry until May.

"Such channels are critical in any situation, and now things are getting very tense," he said.

Although unfortunate, a collapse of the CMA would not cause a spike in tensions or threaten stability on the Korean Peninsula, said Duyeon Kim, with the U.S.-based Center for a New American Security.

"If Pyongyang is serious about risk reduction and credible confidence- and security-building measures, then it would return to the dialogue table with South Korea and the United States," she said.

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