Are Ukraine’s Defenses Starting to Crumble?

Avdiivka was “not a mere symbolic Russian victory,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an Austrian military analyst with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), who travels regularly to the front lines in Ukraine.

The town lies less than 10 miles from the Russian-held city of Donetsk, the capital of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. The loss will put the city much farther out of range for any future Ukrainian counteroffensive. “Ukraine is losing an important strongpoint that anchored Ukrainian defenses in the area. It could potentially open up new avenues of attack for Russian forces,” Gady added.

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CNAS’s Gady said it’s likely there could be “more tactical withdrawals in the coming weeks,” as Ukrainian commanders work to stabilize the situation.

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Gady said a complete collapse of Ukraine’s defenses was not entirely out of the question, but still unlikely: “There are going to be a couple months where the situation is really dire for Ukraine, but I think they can hold.”

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