Commodities 2024: Global Crude Supplies Seen Giving Biden Wiggle Room on Oil Sanctions

US gasoline prices in 2024 will be a factor in any Biden administration decision to tighten oil-related sanctions in an election year when prices at the pump could sway voters, but there are enough global oil supplies to give the US some leeway to take action regarding Russia, Iran and Venezuela, experts say.

Increased US oil production has boosted global supplies, which has reduced -- but not eliminated -- the risk from tighter sanctions, said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security. "If easy oil conditions persist, in line with sluggish growth, I do think they may make it easier to continue with enforcement," she said.

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The US will likely be flexible in negotiations and wary of reimposing sanctions that could undermine humanitarian issues, Ziemba said. The sanctions pause will likely remain in effect at least until the six months expire, but some areas of sanctions may be reinstated, including potentially those on the gold trade, she said.

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