F-16 fighter jets arrive in Ukraine but may not tip advantage against Russia

Some analysts are even more skeptical than Zelensky. Becca Wasser, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the F-16s might be most potent as a psychological and morale boost for Ukrainians and a specter for Russian conscripts — in part because battlefield conditions have changed since last year when the decision to send the planes was announced.

“We’ve seen this pretty routine pattern when it comes to Western military equipment for Ukraine,” she said. “There’s an immediate need for them. Often by the time they are delivered that immediate operational need is null and void based on the rate of battlefield adaptation.”

But they may also fill urgent needs, Wasser said, because of their dual role of shooting down enemy aircraft and hitting ground targets.

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There is a chance the F-16s will follow the path of U.S.-provided Abrams tanks, said Wasser, the defense analyst. A limited number arrived after conditions had changed and had debatable impact on last year’s counteroffensive. Still, it is possible that the F-16s will address Ukraine’s need for better air defenses, she said.

It makes sense to use the planes conservatively, Wasser said. “If you have this exquisite capability, are you going to use it immediately, knowing that there’s a greater risk of it being expended?” she said. “Or are you going to withhold it and use it so it has broader strategic value?”

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