Hezbollah chief signals ‘new phase’ of war with Israel. What happens next is unclear

Jonathan Lord, a regional expert with the Center for a New American Security, said that while Nasrallah’s denial of Hezbollah’s role in the Majdal Shams attack is “not credible,” Israel and the US do “have to take his warning about entering a new phase of the war somewhat seriously. They’re probably going, to some degree, be following Iran’s lead this weekend in responding to the Haniyeh attack.”

As Lord indicated, there is widespread belief that Iran will launch a retaliatory strike at Israel in the coming days, as the Times reported the leadership has already decided. That may well mirror Iran’s April 13 attack, which saw the widespread launching of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel, with Hezbollah and other proxies likely to join in. While Israeli defenses, supplemented by US and Jordanian assets, were able to successfully defeat that assault wave this spring, Lord cautioned against assuming Iran will be unsuccessful in breaching those defenses again.

In such an assault, from the north Hezbollah will “likely target things they have yet to attack,” particularly by aiming deeper south into Israel, Lord predicted, especially as Hezbollah has “foreshadowed” strikes on the port of Haifa.

For Lebanese citizens, the question then will be how Israel responds to the coming attack.

“If [the strikes] end up being successful and are devastating or damaging to Israel, if they cause casualties, that is likely going to incur yet another major Israeli response,” Lord warned. “We’re all basically waiting to see how the ball bounces back, and that will determine the next decision. It’s not a place anyone wants to be.”

Southern Lebanon has witnessed clashes between Hezbollah and Israel in the wake of Gaza conflict, but the great fear has been that Hezbollah and Israel’s exchanges of fire evolve into a full-on ground war.

Right now, Lord said he does not see Israel having the capacity for such a conflict, as it is still tied up in Gaza. But if forces begin being pulled out of Gaza and being refitted and rearmed, that could be “a sign that things could potentially get considerably worse” along the border.

“I wouldn’t call it intractable, I’m sure there is some way out of it, but right now all of the near-term incentives are pressing both sides closer to conflict in a way that neither side really wants, but seemingly is still coming,” Lord said. “And it will be absolutely devastating.”

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