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The United States makes much of the most advanced equipment needed by global semiconductor factories, known as fabs. In the short term, the new restrictions have been “like punching a hole into every chip fab in China that meets the technical specifications of the rules,” said Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

But the measures could prove to be less effective over time, she said, if foreign companies like ASML or Japan’s Tokyo Electron are lured by China’s huge market into trying to develop and sell their own versions of U.S. technology.

“If there are other countries that are not subject to the same level of controls, there’s this really strong structural incentive for these foreign companies to develop alternatives to U.S. technology,” Ms. Kilcrease said.

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