Putin thought Russia’s military could capture Kyiv in 2 days, but it still hasn’t in 20

Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Insider that Putin was “clearly lacking good information on the ground.” But bad intelligence doesn’t necessarily explain the invasion or the failure to grapple with a Ukraine that has changed over the last eight years.

“It’s a personalistic system — ultimately what matters is what Putin thinks,” she said, “and there’s multiple indications that many members of the broader elite were not prepared for what was coming.”

“Putin, personally, is obsessed with Ukraine,” Snegovaya said. And instead of admitting setbacks or failed strategies, “Instead Putin doubles down, right? It’s clear that there’s issues with information, but also his ability to process this information, frankly, at this point.”

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