Putin's "annexation playbook" in Ukraine could leave no path to peace

What to watch: Ukraine has a clear incentive to make its move before September to try to disrupt any Russian annexation plans.

• Russia, meanwhile, seems to be attempting to secure the boundaries of Kherson and the other oblasts it controls without pushing beyond them, Kofman says, potentially setting the stage for annexation.
• "They would be taking a huge risk trying to annex Kherson because they might lose a large part of it," he says. Kofman thinks the Kremlin may wait until the military outlook in Kherson is clearer before announcing its next moves.

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