Taiwan’s New Legislature, Possible Trump Win Cast Shadows Over U.S.-Taipei Ties

Evan Wright, a research assistant at The Center for a New American Security, a think tank, said that Lai essentially presented himself as "Tsai 2.0."

"He is, to a certain extent, the extension of the policies of President Tsai in the first place. So I think, even though Beijing sort of interprets him [Lai] as a troublemaker to a certain extent, we can still expect that status quo," Wright said.

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Wright told Medill News Service, "I think there's a sense of relief, considering the fact that Taiwan, which has been holding democratic elections now since 1996, has continued to remain a democracy,"

"Based on the way that the Taiwanese voters elected Lai as the incoming president here, it has something to say that they also sort of prefer a status quo," Wright said

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Researcher Evan Wright said that U.S. bureaucrats across the State Department and Pentagon have distinct Taiwan policies and experience in working with Republicans, but Trump "was relatively unpredictable as a figure when it came to his Taiwan policy."

"What we'll see with a new Trump administration, I think will really shift," Wright said. "Just because of the fact that I don't think we can necessarily guarantee that a lot of people that were in the former Trump administration will be coming back for a second."

So while Taiwan's January elections could subtly change U.S.-Taiwan relations, U.S. elections in November could alter them greatly.

"I think, admittedly, if we do see a change in relations between Taipei and Beijing, it will most likely have more to do with a changing presidency here in the United States, rather than Taiwan," Wright said.

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