‘The King Doesn’t Lie Down to Save the Pawn’: Why Iran May Let Hezbollah Face Israel Alone

Hezbollah has been propped up by Iran all these years to be a threat on Israel’s border that Tehran can activate in case of open conflict between Israel and Iran, according to the experts. But that relationship is not a two-way street, according to Jonathan Lord, a regional expert with the Center for a New American Security.

“Hezbollah exists to protect Iran, not the other way around,” Lord told Breaking Defense. “The king doesn’t lie down to save the pawn.”

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“If Israel pushes too far and Hezbollah is under threat of total collapse, which would mean the Hezbollah tool isn’t there when Iran needs it as a second-strike capability against Israel, that could compel [Tehran] to try and take some escalatory action,” Lord said. “So I think the Israelis have to walk a fine line, understanding that it would be the tail waging the dog for Tehran to come save Hezbollah.”

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“So if we’re talking about an Israeli operation that fundamentally changes that equation, near-irreparably destroys Hezbollah, Iranians are then looking at the menu of options they have to try and get Israel to stay its hand,” Lord said.

He said that “on one hand, [a response] maybe something similar to what we saw in April, which Iran seems loathe to do again based on their messaging and the posture of US forces in the region.” He said Tehran could consider something “perhaps more limited and targeted, but it doesn’t have great options, because we’re outside the bounds of what is the typical Iranian doctrine for projection power and coercing its enemies in the region.”

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