The Pentagon Is Planning a Drone ‘Hellscape’ to Defend Taiwan

“China has essentially copied all of the large and medium high-altitude drones the US has and produced what amount to cheaper versions of the MQ-9 Reaper or the [RQ-4] Global Hawk,” Stacie Pettyjohn tells WIRED. A senior fellow and director of defense programs at the Center for a New American Security, Pettyjohn is the lead author of the June report “Swarms Over the Strait” on the role of drones in a future conflict over Taiwan. “Potentially more concerning is the smaller drones that don’t have to fly as far and can be launched from mainland China, of which the Chinese military has many.”

Simply put, China has a lot of drones and can make a lot more drones quickly, creating a likely advantage during a protracted conflict. “This stands in contrast to American and Taiwanese forces, who do not have large inventories of drones or the right mix of drones to successfully defeat a Chinese invasion,” Pettyjohn and her coauthors write in the CNAS report.

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“Taiwan needs a lot of these systems and needs them quickly to incorporate them into broader tactics and formations” as effectively as the Ukrainians have, Pettyjohn says.

And this is just the beginning: The Taiwanese government plans to procure nearly 1,000 additional AI-enabled attack drones in the next year, according to Taipei Times, with long-standing plans to expand indigenous production of homegrown capabilities to prevent backlogs in weapons transfers from the United States—and, more importantly, ease reliance on Chinese-made commercial off-the-shelf parts. (Although, as Pettyjohn points out, the Taiwanese defense community itself isn’t totally unified around the “hellscape” plan in the first place.)

Access to commercial drones “is where Taiwan is most disadvantaged” because of DJI’s relative dominance of the market, Pettyjohn says, noting that “even if Taiwan had Chinese drones available to them, they would have to hack in to each system to ensure they can’t be tracked by DJI or don’t have similar vulnerabilities.”

“Consider that for most of the first-person-view kamikaze drones used in Ukraine right now, all of those components are sourced from China,” she adds. “Even Ukraine has tried to wean itself off Chinese sources and hasn’t found anything at a comparable price point.”

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