War Game Finds U.S., Taiwan Can Defend Against a Chinese Invasion

In the first three weeks after invading Taiwan, China sank two multibillion-dollar U.S. aircraft carriers, attacked American bases across Japan and on Guam, and destroyed hundreds of advanced U.S. jet fighters.

China’s situation was, if anything, worse. It landed troops on Taiwan and seized the island’s southern third, but its amphibious fleet was decimated by relentless U.S. and Japanese missile and submarine attacks and it couldn’t resupply its own forces. The capital, Taipei, was secure in Taiwanese hands, and Beijing was low on long-range ballistic missiles to counter America’s still-potent air and maritime power.

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Becca Wasser, another of the game participants, said 2036 is a likelier time frame. “In 2027, China is unlikely to have the ability to successfully launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” said Ms. Wasser, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank. If so, she said, “that suggests they are going to take another approach.”

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