Will escalating sanctions shift Fortress Russia? It’s not a given

Even as Western allies unleash new economic pressures on Russia with businesses announcing market pullouts, and an intensification of cyberattacks against Russian government entities, experts warn that these measures may not be enough to curb President Vladimir Putin’s escalating war on Ukraine.

“New sanctions are designed to bog Russia down in the long-term,” says Dr Nikolas Gvosdev, Russia expert and editor of world affairs journal Orbis, “but not to impose enough pain for Putin to pull out of Ukraine.”

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Over time, Putin was able to find “workarounds”, says Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security who has written extensively on sanctions.

One of the workarounds was Putin’s decision to pursue “selective de-globalization”, she says. “Even at its most open, Russia was closed off to foreign capital.”

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