CNAS Report by Richard Danzig Recommends a New Approach to Prediction in National Security

The Center for a New American Security
(CNAS) released a new report on October 26, 2011, Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security, by Richard Danzig, Chairman of
the CNAS Board of Directors and former Secretary of the Navy.

In Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About
Prediction and National Security, Danzig
examines the nature of prediction in national security and offers strategic
recommendations for how the U.S. Department of Defense can improve its
predictive capabilities while also preparing for predictive failure.

The Department of Defense relies on predictions about future threats and
potential scenarios to forecast needs and select and acquire major weapons
systems. Yet history has shown that an uncertain national security environment
dictates the need for adaptability and flexibility when predictions are
incorrect, and the U.S. military must be better prepared when predictions are
wrong.



Danzig recommends that the Department of Defense adopt new strategies to
improve its predictive abilities while also preparing to be unprepared. He
suggests narrowing the time between conceptualizing programs and bringing them
to realization; building more for the short-term and designing operationally
flexible equipment; and valuing diversity and competition. Policymakers will
always drive in the dark, but by adopting these recommendations, they may
better respond to unpredictable conditions and prepare the United States for
unforeseen threats.

Download Driving in the Dark:
Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security.

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The Center for a New
American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan
research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national
security and defense policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and
prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.