New CNAS Policy Brief Examines China’s Nuclear Decision-Making Framework

Washington, March 18, 2025 — As China undergoes a rapid nuclear buildup, key questions arise regarding how Beijing makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) releases a new policy brief illuminating the thinking behind these developments titled Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses, by Jacob Stokes, senior fellow and deputy director of the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program.

The report analyzes China's nuclear decision-making through three interconnected lenses: “Leadership,” studying how Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping likely views nuclear weapons as a source of prestige while maintaining ambiguity about how he views their geopolitical effectiveness; “Weapons Systems and Military Organizations,” examining how the expanding nuclear arsenal of the People’s Liberation Army creates new strategic options despite organizational challenges; and “Official Policies and Doctrine,” highlighting how China's no-first-use policy could be reinterpreted in a future conflict, particularly over Taiwan.

The policy brief concludes with actionable policy recommendations for the United States, including:

• Order a National Intelligence Estimate on how Xi views past crises where nuclear weapons played a major role;
• Pressure China to issue more explanation of its nuclear policies and capabilities;
• Expand nuclear information sharing on a reciprocal basis to reduce the risk of catastrophic misunderstandings or accidents;
• Make an authoritative policy statement on what would constitute China reaching nuclear parity with the United States; and
• Offset China’s nuclear modernization with both conventional and nuclear capabilities to ensure the most deterrence effect per dollar.

For more information or to arrange an interview with the report’s author, please contact Alexa Whaley at [email protected].