New CNAS Report on Russia-China Dynamics in Central Asia   

Washington, November 12, 2024 — As the United States navigates a presidential transition, understanding the Russia-China relationship in Central Asia is vital for national security, with both countries' strategies impacting American interests — from regional stability to countering authoritarian influence. Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-Conflict?, by Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet.

The report examines how Moscow and Beijing, despite some potential areas of friction, are aligning their strategies in Central Asia. Their overarching objectives to curb Western influence, maintain regional stability, and secure economic benefits continue to drive cooperation, even as tensions remain — particularly over China’s economic dominance.

“Russia and China’s partnership in Central Asia is evolving rapidly with China stepping into roles that Russia has historically played,” said Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program. “Yet despite the appearance of friction, Moscow and Beijing will work hard to compartmentalize their differences and prevent them from spilling over and tarnishing their broader relationship.”

“Central Asia remains critical for both Russia and China as they aim to reshape global power structures,” said Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program. “The region also holds strategic opportunities for the United States, especially as countries there value U.S. support for their sovereignty and independence.”

The authors argue that Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine has created security gaps, allowing China to expand its influence in the security sphere. This shift raises questions about future power balances, especially if instability in Central Asia spikes.

Yet, the report contends that Beijing and Moscow remain united in a larger effort to challenge the West’s global order, leveraging platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At the same time, Central Asian nations continue to push back against being subsumed into a joint Russia-China power structure.

The report also underscores the importance of proactive U.S. engagement. While Washington may not match China’s economic clout or Russia’s cultural ties, there are strategic opportunities for the United States to support Central Asian sovereignty through focused trade, investment, and security partnerships. These efforts could strengthen regional resilience and ensure a more balanced geopolitical landscape.

Join today's virtual event, Russia and China in Central Asia: Compete, Cooperate, or De-conflict?, at 2:00 p.m. EST for more insights. The discussion will feature Ambassador Donald Lu, report authors Lisa Curtis and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and will be moderated by Katie Stallard. Register here.

For more information or to arrange an interview with the report authors, please contact Alexa Whaley at [email protected].