September 15, 2022

New CNAS Report: "Russia in the Arctic: Gauging How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Alter Regional Dynamics"

By: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Nicholas Lokker, Heli Hautala, and Col James Frey

Washington, September 15, 2022—Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Russia in the Arctic: Gauging How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Alter Regional Dynamics from authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Nicholas Lokker, Heli Hautala, and Col. James Frey, with contributions from Jim Danoy, Rebecca Pincus, and Katarzyna Zysk.

The report reexamines Russia’s approach to the Arctic in light of events in Ukraine.

Given the high degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of the war in Ukraine and its effect on Russia, it is impossible to confidently project a single future for Russia’s Arctic policy. CNAS researchers, therefore, identified four drivers that are most likely to shape Russia’s approach to the Arctic:

  • Russia’s perception of the Western threat;
  • the impact of Western sanctions;
  • China’s role in the Arctic;
  • and whether Putin remains in power.

Using different permutations of those drivers, the report then spells out three scenarios for Russia’s approach to the Arctic: 1) an isolated Russia, 2) a Russia-China entente, and 3) a post-Putin Russia. These three scenarios were chosen based on their potentially significant impact on U.S. and European national security interests. For each scenario, the report discusses the implications of the given world for the United States and Europe.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the report authors, please contact Cameron Edinburgh at [email protected]

Read the Full Report:

Transatlantic Security

Russia in the Arctic: Gauging How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Alter Regional Dynamics

Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is producing ripple effects that will reverberate far beyond Ukraine for years to come, affecting issue areas and regions where...

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Authors

  • Andrea Kendall-Taylor

    Senior Fellow and Director, Transatlantic Security Program

    Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She works on national security ch...

  • Jim Townsend

    Adjunct Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program

    James Joye Townsend Jr. is an adjunct senior fellow in the CNAS Transatlantic Security Program. After eight years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for European ...

  • Nicholas Lokker

    Research Associate, Transatlantic Security Program

    Nicholas Lokker is a research associate for the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). His work focuses on transatlantic relations, R...

  • Heli Hautala

    Adjunct Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Security Program

    Heli Hautala is an Adjunct Senior Fellow for the Transatlantic Security Program. She specializes in Northern European security and in Russia. Heli joined the Finnish Foreign S...

  • Col James Frey

    Former Senior Military Fellow, United States Marine Corps

    Colonel James W. Frey is a Commandant’s Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington, D.C. Col Jay Frey recently completed a four-year assignment wit...