January 07, 2019

A New Cold War Has Begun

In June 2005, I published a cover story in the Atlantic, “How We Would Fight China.” I wrote that, “The American military contest with China … will define the twenty-first century. And China will be a more formidable adversary than Russia ever was.” I went on to explain that the wars of the future would be naval, with all of their abstract battle systems, even though dirty counterinsurgency fights were all the rage 14 years ago.

That future has arrived, and it is nothing less than a new cold war: The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships’ maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means. This situation will last decades and will only get worse, whatever this or that trade deal is struck between smiling Chinese and American presidents in a photo-op that sends financial markets momentarily skyward. The new cold war is permanent because of a host of factors that generals and strategists understand but that many, especially those in the business and financial community who populate Davos, still prefer to deny. And because the U.S.-China relationship is the world’s most crucial—with many second- and third-order effects—a cold war between the two is becoming the negative organizing principle of geopolitics that markets will just have to price in.

Read the full article and more in Foreign Policy.

  • Reports
    • March 18, 2025
    Assessing China’s Nuclear Decision-Making

    China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. This policy brief analyzes that trend by presenting three ...

    By Jacob Stokes

  • Commentary
    • January 20, 2025
    Articulate a Comprehensive, Coherent China Strategy

    President Trump should articulate a comprehensive, coherent China strategy that addresses U.S. objectives, the ways and means to achieve them, and how the strategy can mitigat...

    By Jacob Stokes

  • Commentary
    • Sharper
    • August 21, 2024
    Sharper: Axis of Upheaval

    A loose but growing coalition between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea demonstrates that their combined strategic interests have the potential to pose significant economic...

    By Anna Pederson

  • Commentary
    • The National Interest
    • August 8, 2024
    The Will and the Power: China’s Plan to Undermine Pax Americana

    From Washington’s Farewell Address to Biden’s national security strategy, the core U.S. national interest, unsurprisingly, has not changed: to ensure the fundamental security ...

    By Richard Fontaine & Robert Blackwill

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia