Address NATO at the Munich Security Conference

• President Trump has an opportunity to address tensions with NATO at the Munich Security Conference.
• While he should articulate his grievances, he also should lay out his requirements for NATO.
• Recalibrating the alliance is necessary to counter Russia and China.

Given the high profile of European issues, including predictions that a wider European war could be in the offing, President Trump should take advantage of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in February—just four months before Trump will attend the first North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit of his second term.

For the second Trump administration, the Russia-Ukraine war and “the axis of upheaval” (the growing informal alliance between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran) have made the Europe/NATO portfolio hard to dismiss.¹ Together with the potentially turbulent U.S.-European trade relationship, the Europe/NATO portfolio could be in the administration’s crosshairs for months to come. The administration has not been silent about Europe and NATO either, with tweets bearing warnings to the Europeans about trade wars and the United States withdrawing from NATO if bills are not paid.² In fact, the second Trump administration already has appointed a special envoy for Ukraine, and Trump’s advisors are discussing the possibility of a deal with Russia to end the fighting.

As counterintuitive as it may seem, Trump needs to attend the MSC and deliver a major foreign policy address. He must articulate both his grievances and his requirements for what NATO should do to improve the relationship. He will find many Europeans, including the cardinals of the European Union, ready to listen and act on problems that may have seemed out of reach previously, including transatlantic defense trade, tariffs, NATO-EU cooperation, and (especially) increased defense spending—even up to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Munich is the best platform for Trump both to chastise Europe if he must—but also to build a new cooperative partnership for the United States. Europe is ready to discuss the subject in earnest and to put real money and industrial cooperation into digging itself out of the hole of military unpreparedness and industrial atrophy.³ This MSC meeting notably will be the first hosted by the MSC’s new leader, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who established a good working relationship with Trump eight years ago.⁴ Having Stoltenberg on the scene will remind the audience of the positive relationship Trump has had with him. The convening could inspire new efforts by Trump to work with NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte, who also developed a good relationship with Trump when both were heads of government. Given the large number of world leaders who attend the MSC, President Trump could further use the MSC for bilateral meetings, thereby satisfying the newly established Department of Government Efficiency by scheduling several meetings with leaders without having to travel to those nations.

An important component to this meeting in Munich is its proximity to the NATO Summit in the Hague four months later—Trump’s first in his new term. The policy proposals and recommendations that Trump lays out for NATO in Munich can be considered during the interval between the MSC and the Hague Summit, allowing allies to codify or launch many of his recommendations at the summit. He also will arrive at the summit having already met many of his new colleagues and so better prepared to lead the Alliance in the direction he feels it should go. Given his focus on making a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the fighting in Ukraine, Trump could launch the outlines of his plan for a ceasefire at Munich. Four months later at the Hague, he then can use the summit to win allied support for the talks.

Trump does not have to learn the lessons other U.S. presidents have learned about the importance of Europe and having strong European partners. He can use the MSC to quickly begin the building process with ideas that can then be put into action later at the NATO Summit. He will see (as his predecessors have) that the need for allies historically comes sooner than expected, but he will be ready.

Presidents Putin and Xi respect power. Trump’s power includes having close allies and friends across the globe—should he choose to. Moscow and Beijing do not have such allies. But to wield this power, Trump needs to build ties with Europe, and such ties are not strong at the moment. Many allies expect to go it alone. Strengthening ties with allies is not being charitable or being nice to Europeans; it enhances U.S. strength and power. Trump should not give up his superpower that is not available to others. Instead, beginning at the Munich Security Conference, he should show his strength by showcasing his ability to make a new deal with anxious European nations who themselves are ready to deal, and thereby strengthen U.S. security.