November 06, 2023
America’s Withdrawal From Afghanistan Did Not Spur Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
In August 2023, the United States marked the two-year anniversary of its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. After nearly 20 years of fighting in the country, Washington bumbled its way through a disorderly exit. U.S. officials were caught off guard by the rapid collapse of the Afghan security forces and seemed unprepared to evacuate American citizens or Afghan partners. U.S. President Joe Biden’s handling of the pullout gave his administration a black eye that never fully healed. When the scale of the calamity became apparent at the end of August 2021, Biden’s approval ratings fell from 54 to 46 percent, and they still have not recovered.
The United States’ apparent abandonment of an ally when it withdrew from Afghanistan almost certainly had nothing to do with Putin’s war.
Over the last year and a half, some of Biden’s critics have even argued that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan helped inspire Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch his 2022 full-scale attack on Ukraine. Putin clearly felt that he had unfinished business with Ukraine well before Biden took office: Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 had not prevented Ukraine from pursuing deeper ties with the West, even while President Donald Trump, an admirer of Putin’s, occupied the White House. But in March 2022, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell claimed that the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan was the precipitating event that emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine, arguing that Russia would not have attacked its neighbor if Biden had not “cut and run.”
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Putin’s Point of No Return
Commentary
The United States and Europe must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman
-
What Can Europe do in Syria?
Podcast
After 54 years of brutal rule in Syria, the al-Assad family’s reign came to an end last week. Following 13 years of devastating civil war, which saw over a million refugees fl...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Trump and the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman and Robert Lee
Podcast
More than 1000 days into the War in Ukraine, questions about continued support for the Ukrainian effort and the prospect of a negotiated settlement in the months to come have ...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Rob Lee & Mike Kofman
-
The Future of Russia and China in Central Asia
Podcast
Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared object...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
