Best of CNAS in 2023: Reports

Bold and innovative research is the driving mission of CNAS. Nowhere is this more evident than in the 32 reports the Center has released in 2023. Tackling the biggest issues of our time, CNAS experts have analyzed what sanctioning the PRC would mean, the role of AI in global competition, how the U.S. can recruit the best and brightest to join its national security institutions. Read some of this year's reports as CNAS experts explored the most pressing national security issues of today and tomorrow.

The Future of Civilians in National Security by Katherine Kuzminski, Nathalie Grogan, and Celina Pouchet

Military, Veterans, and Society Program

To attract, recruit, and retain those with the required qualifications and interests, departments and agencies must understand the motivations of the next generation and the challenges they face when seeking government careers in national security. As part of this project, CNAS researchers organized focus groups and conducted a survey to identify the motivations, priorities, and skill sets of those interested in government service, along with the challenges, barriers, and opportunities in taking this path. The project examines the current civilian national security talent pipeline and explores the problems associated with the recruitment and retention of civil servants in national security departments and agencies.

No Winners in this Game by Emily Kilcrease

Energy, Economics, and Security Program

This report seeks to advance policy debates on how to sanction China, if geopolitical conditions warranted doing so at scale. It builds on prior Center for a New American Security (CNAS) research, including a 2023 report that outlines how the United States currently uses a variety of sanctions tools to manage the strategic relationship with the PRC. A key finding of the earlier work is that the United States imposes sanctions at a relatively limited scale compared to the scope of challenges that exist in the bilateral relationship, with the notable exception of an increasing range of technology-related sanctions. A large divide separates the existing level of sanctions on China and the full range of economic measures that the United States may consider. This report attempts to envision that fuller range of economic measures and consider whether the use of sanctions would meaningfully advance U.S. interests during a potential conflict.

Production is Deterrence by Stacie Pettyjohn and Hannah Dennis

Defense Program

This report explores whether the fiscal year (FY) 2024 U.S. defense budget request for key conventional precision-guided munitions (PGMs) aligns with the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) by prioritizing weapons needed for the “pacing challenge” China poses and dealing with the “acute threat” from Russia, while taking risk in lower priority areas. The FY24 presidential budget request builds on the shift that began in FY23 to support the NDS: increasing buys of key long-range and antiship missiles to prepare for a fight in the Pacific, starting to fill the cruise missile defense gap, bolstering production of the land-attack weapons needed in Europe, and test-running multiyear procurement and large lot procurement for key munitions to strengthen the defense industrial base.

U.S.-China Competition and Military AI by Jacob Stokes and Alexander Sullivan with Noah Greene

Indo-Pacific Security Program & Technology and National Security Program

Two tectonic trends in the international security environment appear to be on a collision course. The first trend is the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China). The second trend is the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, including for military applications. This report explores how the United States can manage strategic risks—defined as increased risks of armed conflict or the threat of nuclear war—that could be created or exacerbated by military AI in its relationship with China.

Campaign of Denial by Becca Wasser

Defense Program

The United States faces an unprecedented challenge: simultaneously deterring large-scale conventional aggression by two nuclear-armed powers. The nation will need to deter these major adversaries from overt aggression in the near term in two primary, yet distinct, regions: China in the Indo-Pacific and Russia in Europe. However, the U.S. military is unprepared to concurrently meet the challenges posed by China and Russia. These challenges have become more pronounced as Beijing continues its ambitious military modernization and Moscow continues to threaten European security despite its currently diminished military strength.

Identifying Russian Vulnerabilities and How to Leverage Them by Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Connolly, Siemon Wezeman, Gavin Wilde, Elina Ribakova, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Edward Fishman, Eric Ciaramella, Paul Stronski, Peter Schroeder, Timothy Frye and Maria Snegovaya

Transatlantic Security Program

This essay series identifies 10 of the most critical vulnerabilities in today’s Russia across the defense, economic, and diplomatic and political domains. Some of these vulnerabilities, such as Russia’s dependence on oil and gas exports or the exodus of many of the smartest and most talented Russians, are long-standing but have been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other vulnerabilities that the essays identify have been created by the war, such as Ukraine’s ability to impose costs on Russia for the foreseeable future or the challenge that Russian diplomats now face in international organizations. Russia has many vulnerabilities that are not included in this series, such as the Wagner example previously discussed or its dismal demographic outlook. They represent key weaknesses in the Russian state and its government, but there are few actionable opportunities for the United States and Europe to leverage the vulnerabilities. This essay series focuses on 10 of the most critical vulnerabilities inside Russia that the United States and its partners can exploit.