May 10, 2023
Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive
The West Needs to Prepare the Country’s Military for a Long War
As the Russian winter offensive reaches its culmination, Ukraine is poised to seize the initiative. In the coming weeks, it plans to conduct an offensive operation, or series of offensives, that may prove decisive in this phase of the conflict. This is not Ukraine’s only remaining opportunity to liberate a substantial amount of territory and inflict a major defeat on Russian forces, but the upcoming offensive may be the moment when available Western military equipment, training, and ammunition best intersect with the forces set aside by Ukraine for this operation. Ukraine is also eager to demonstrate that, despite months of brutal fighting, its military is not exhausted and remains able to break through Russian lines.
The offensive has consumed planning, but a sober-minded approach would recognize that supporting Ukraine will be a long-term effort.
Policymakers, however, have placed undue emphasis on the upcoming offensive without providing sufficient consideration of what will come afterward and whether Ukraine is well positioned for the next phase. It is critical that Ukraine’s Western partners develop a long-term theory of victory for Ukraine, since even in the best-case scenario, this upcoming offensive is unlikely to end the conflict. Indeed, what follows this operation could be another period of indeterminate fighting and attrition, but with reduced ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. This is already a long war, and it is likely to become protracted. History is an imperfect guide, but it suggests wars that endure for more than a year are likely to go on for at least several more and are exceedingly difficult to end. A Western theory of success must therefore prevent a situation in which the war drags on, but where Western countries are unable to provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Brussels Sprouts Live: NATO in the American Heartland
NATO marked its 75th anniversary this year – a testament to the strength and continued relevance of the alliance. Celebrations have been muted however, due to the ongoing conf...
By Mark Newton, Anniken Huitfeldt, Maria Markowska, John Deni & Rebecca Moore
-
Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte
One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. With the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict, the B...
By Jonathan Lord, Hanna Notte, Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Exploiting Russian Weakness: Moldova and Georgia at a Crossroads
Later this month, both Moldova and Georgia will hold crucial elections with the potential to profoundly shape their futures. As Russia attempts to reassert dominance along its...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Nicholas Lokker
-
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and the Axis of Upheaval
On the Russian Roulette podcast from CSIS, Andrea Kendall-Taylor discusses the rise of cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, in what she has dubbed 'the ax...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Max Bergmann & Maria Snegovaya