January 16, 2025
China Is Just Fine With North Korean Troops in Ukraine
More than 11,000 troops from North Korea, with possibly many more to come, are fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Many commentators speculate that the situation worries China, North Korea’s nominal ally, because it could risk sullying Beijing’s reputation by association; entangle security on the Korean Peninsula—China’s doorstep—with a raging European war; and lead to North Korea conspiring with Russia behind China’s back. For those reasons, some imagine that Beijing might be convinced to throw a spanner in the works of the Moscow-Pyongyang coalition.
These conjectures are misguided. Beijing is unlikely to oppose, much less do anything to stop, North Korea’s military support to Russia. China has made it clear, both rhetorically and through its actions, that it wants Russia to prevail in Ukraine or at least avoid what Russian President Vladimir Putin has called a “strategic defeat.” China’s motivations are multilayered. They include Chinese President Xi Jinping’s investment in deepening relations with Putin personally and Russia generally.
During the Cold War, there was a time when China would have been paranoid about Russia and North Korea conspiring behind its back. Those worries, however, are now relics of a bygone era characterized by a radically different balance of power among this authoritarian triangle.
Beijing also supports the principle of Moscow defending its “legitimate security interests” (sometimes translated as “concerns”). That phrase shows up in official statements articulating Xi’s Global Security Initiative. What China means by legitimate security interests is the right of major powers to assert a veto over the political and security relationships of its neighbors, and to enforce them militarily if necessary. Beijing displays this attitude through its military pressure toward Taiwan and India, as well as its relentless efforts to undermine U.S. alliances in East Asia, such as those with Japan and the Philippines.
China has given Russia colossal amounts of economic assistance and technical support. China is also continually testing the limits of what type and scale of military support it can provide Russia before the United States and European allies take steps to punish it. It is only fear of Western reprisals, such as tighter export controls, sanctions, or a complete rupture of relations, that prevents Beijing from directly providing traditional overt military assistance to Russia.
North Korea’s military assistance to Russia—first in the form of artillery shells and missiles, and now troops—has aided Moscow’s war effort at a critical juncture. North Korea has thus done what China would likely have done if it didn’t fear the diplomatic, financial, and military costs.
Read the full article and more from Foreign Policy.
Find more of the Center's work on the Axis of Upheaval between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea here.
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