September 19, 2024

Competition, Not Control, is Key to Winning the Global AI Race

The United States, with much of the world’s AI-enabling infrastructure, has positioned itself as the global leader in AI innovation. That might not be the case for much longer. China continues to develop state-of-the-art AI systems, despite an extensive network of U.S. and allied export controls aimed at curtailing China’s technical progress. Beijing is expanding and accelerating new investments in AI and investing significant government resources into supporting its emerging domestic technology base. The result: global AI competition has now become synonymous with U.S.-China competition.

As the United States fights to maintain technological primacy, policymakers are enacting and considering new export controls to limit China’s access to the necessary components for building advanced AI systems, such as American-developed state-of-the-art models, semiconductors, and computational power.

If the United States fails to change course from an AI strategy based on control, not geopolitical competition, it will quickly find itself at a strategic disadvantage – with adversarial nations filling the void.

Getting export controls right is notoriously difficult. Not long after the United States passed its expansive export controls targeting China’s access to AI-relevant semiconductors in October 2022, cracks in the effectiveness of these controls appeared. In response, China increased investment in its domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities intending to achieve self-sufficiency. Markets, too, responded to these controls with successful smuggling efforts, pouring controlled chips into the PRC. Firms like NVIDIA diligently retooled products to route sales around legal strictures. For tangible goods such as semiconductors, the success of export controls has proved challenging.

Read the full article from Just Security.

  • Podcast
    • December 20, 2024
    How Can the Trump Administration Strengthen U.S. AI Leadership?

    With a new administration just around the corner, now is the time for the US to strengthen its position as a global leader in AI. Even with changing leadership, there remain n...

    By Paul Scharre

  • Commentary
    • Foreign Policy
    • December 19, 2024
    How China’s Antitrust Tactics Undermine U.S. Tech Leadership

    If the United States fails to address this threat, it risks not just losing ground in the technology race, but ceding control over the rules that govern it....

    By Ruby Scanlon

  • Commentary
    • December 12, 2024
    Sharper: Tariffs

    The incoming Trump administration has signaled that tariffs will be a central pillar of its economic strategy, with significant implications for international trade, the Ameri...

    By Eleanor Hume, Charles Horn & Gwendolyn Nowaczyk

  • Reports
    • December 11, 2024
    Technology to Secure the AI Chip Supply Chain: A Working Paper

    Advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems, built and deployed with specialized chips, show vast potential to drive economic growth and scientific progress....

    By Tim Fist, Tao Burga & Vivek Chilukuri

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia