July 16, 2020

How Iran’s Oil Infrastructure Gambit Could Imperil the Strait of Hormuz

A series of mysterious and seemingly random explosions continue to erupt across various parts of Iran this month, hitting sensitive military sites, as well as populated residential neighborhoods. Recent reporting suggests that these explosions may be part of a larger campaign undertaken by the United States and Israel to scale back the regime’s military and nuclear capabilities. Iran has been slow in its response, playing the long game. But the risk of escalation — unintentional or otherwise — looms large. And as the events of 2019 showed, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would be key areas where Iran might set its sights for an asymmetric response.

Iran may be signaling its calculus is changing.

For decades, Iran has threatened repeatedly to obstruct naval traffic and disrupt the global energy market in the Strait of Hormuz. These threats had rung hollow for the most part — until now. Since the 1980s, such an extreme escalation from Iran amounted to a double-edged sword that also would prevent the country from using the strait for its own commercial lifeline. To take steps to close the strait would rattle Iran’s few remaining partners, chiefly China, whose energy needs are tied to freedom of navigation in the region and whose support the regime desperately needs to offset the effect of U.S. sanctions over the last 15 years.

Read the full article in War on the Rocks.

  • Reports
    • November 21, 2019
    In Dire Straits?

    In a joint report from CNAS and Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, Ilan Goldenberg, Jessica Schwed, and Kaleigh Thomas assess what would happen to the...

    By Ilan Goldenberg, Kaleigh Thomas & Jessica Schwed

  • Video
    • December 2, 2024
    Ziemba: China Could Impose Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S.

    If tariffs and costs continue to rise, it will not be great for oil demand within the US, that's according to Rachel Ziemba, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New Amer...

    By Rachel Ziemba

  • Commentary
    • Sharper
    • November 20, 2024
    Sharper: Trump 2.0

    Donald Trump's return to the White House is widely expected to reshape America's global priorities. With personnel choices and policy agendas that mark a significant break fro...

    By Charles Horn & Gwendolyn Nowaczyk

  • Podcast
    • October 10, 2024
    Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte

    One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. With the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict, the B...

    By Jonathan Lord, Hanna Notte, Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia