February 27, 2024
NATO’s Confusion Over the Russia Threat
In Europe, not a week goes by without another stark warning about the growing potential of a Russian attack on a European Union member, especially if Ukraine loses the war. “We have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the Tagesspiegel newspaper in January. Two months earlier, he had warned that Germany needed to become “capable of fighting a war.” Swedish commander-in-chief Gen. Micael Bydén similarly urged Swedes to “prepare for war,” while the head of the British Army told Britons that they are part of a “prewar generation” that may have to fight Russia in the not so distant future. The fear was driven home by prospective Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who told a campaign rally that he would “encourage” the Russians “to do whatever the hell they want” to any European NATO member not spending enough on defense.
NATO should not take the Russian military’s poor performance in Ukraine as a reason to be complacent.
These statements have usually been accompanied by a number of estimates of how quickly Russia can regenerate forces and equipment lost in Ukraine in order to attack a NATO country. Pistorius thinks this will take “five to eight years,” whereas the outgoing chief of Estonian military intelligence estimated that Russia could be ready for war again within four years. “It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity,” according to Denmark’s defense minister. Poland’s national security agency believes that Russia could attack NATO as soon as three years from now.
Read the full article from Foreign Policy.
More from CNAS
-
China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy
Congressional Testimony
As defense cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea grows, it will enable these countries to offset vulnerabilities relative to the United States....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
What Have U.S. Sanctions on Russia Achieved Since the War in Ukraine Began?
Podcast
Three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, what have U.S. sanctions achieved? NPR talks to Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the ...
By Edward Fishman
-
Russia and U.S. Agree to Work Toward Improving Ties and Ending the Ukraine War
Podcast
U.S. and Russian officials held more than four hours of talks in Riyadh on Tuesday, their first on ending the war in Ukraine, as Kyiv and its European allies watched anxiously...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World with Hal Brands
Podcast
For more than 100 years, the continent of Eurasia has played a central role in global geopolitics. In the 20th century, numerous authoritarian powers from Germany under Kaiser...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend & Hal Brands
