February 27, 2024
NATO’s Confusion Over the Russia Threat
In Europe, not a week goes by without another stark warning about the growing potential of a Russian attack on a European Union member, especially if Ukraine loses the war. “We have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the Tagesspiegel newspaper in January. Two months earlier, he had warned that Germany needed to become “capable of fighting a war.” Swedish commander-in-chief Gen. Micael Bydén similarly urged Swedes to “prepare for war,” while the head of the British Army told Britons that they are part of a “prewar generation” that may have to fight Russia in the not so distant future. The fear was driven home by prospective Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who told a campaign rally that he would “encourage” the Russians “to do whatever the hell they want” to any European NATO member not spending enough on defense.
NATO should not take the Russian military’s poor performance in Ukraine as a reason to be complacent.
These statements have usually been accompanied by a number of estimates of how quickly Russia can regenerate forces and equipment lost in Ukraine in order to attack a NATO country. Pistorius thinks this will take “five to eight years,” whereas the outgoing chief of Estonian military intelligence estimated that Russia could be ready for war again within four years. “It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity,” according to Denmark’s defense minister. Poland’s national security agency believes that Russia could attack NATO as soon as three years from now.
Read the full article from Foreign Policy.
More from CNAS
-
Putin’s Point of No Return
Commentary
The United States and Europe must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman
-
What Can Europe do in Syria?
Podcast
After 54 years of brutal rule in Syria, the al-Assad family’s reign came to an end last week. Following 13 years of devastating civil war, which saw over a million refugees fl...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Trump and the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman and Robert Lee
Podcast
More than 1000 days into the War in Ukraine, questions about continued support for the Ukrainian effort and the prospect of a negotiated settlement in the months to come have ...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Rob Lee & Mike Kofman
-
The Future of Russia and China in Central Asia
Podcast
Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared object...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
