September 03, 2024
Putin Will Never Give Up in Ukraine
Two and a half years after Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States’ strategy for ending the war remains the same: impose enough costs on Russia that its president, Vladimir Putin, will decide that he has no choice but to halt the conflict. In an effort to change his cost-benefit calculus, Washington has tried to find the sweet spot between supporting Ukraine and punishing Russia on the one hand, and reducing the risks of escalation on the other. As rational as this approach may appear, it rests on a faulty assumption: that Putin’s mind can be changed.
The evidence suggests that on Ukraine, Putin simply is not persuadable; he is all in. For him, preventing Ukraine from becoming a bastion that the West can use to threaten Russia is a strategic necessity. He has taken personal responsibility for achieving that outcome and likely judges it as worth nearly any cost. Trying to coerce him into giving up is a fruitless exercise that just wastes lives and resources.
The evidence suggests that on Ukraine, Putin simply is not persuadable; he is all in.
There is only one viable option for ending the war in Ukraine on terms acceptable to the West and Kyiv: waiting Putin out. Under this approach, the United States would hold the line in Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia while minimizing the level of fighting and amount of resources expended until Putin dies or otherwise leaves office. Only then will there be a chance for a lasting peace in Ukraine.
Read the full article and more from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
‘The Trump Administration Is Doing a Lot of Putin’s Work for Him,’ Says Former CIA Analyst
Video
Bianna Golodryga speaks to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, about talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia.Watch the full...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy
Congressional Testimony
As defense cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea grows, it will enable these countries to offset vulnerabilities relative to the United States....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
-
What Have U.S. Sanctions on Russia Achieved Since the War in Ukraine Began?
Podcast
Three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, what have U.S. sanctions achieved? NPR talks to Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the ...
By Edward Fishman
-
Russia and U.S. Agree to Work Toward Improving Ties and Ending the Ukraine War
Podcast
U.S. and Russian officials held more than four hours of talks in Riyadh on Tuesday, their first on ending the war in Ukraine, as Kyiv and its European allies watched anxiously...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor
