October 26, 2016

Putin’s Strategic Aim is to Fracture the West

After Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 caught the United States off guard, Western observers have since struggled to understand Russian strategic decision-making. The apparent disconnect between Russia’s strategic gains and economic costs in theaters such as Ukraine and Syria leaves more questions than answers about “what Putin wants,” and how he perceives Russia’s interests. Alarmed by this uncertainty, a growing chorus of influential voices has warned that unless NATO shores up its land and maritime capabilities in Europe, it risks inadvertently inviting Russia to make a land-grab of NATO’s eastern territory. While NATO must prepare for such a scenario and reassure nervous eastern allies, Putin is probably not looking to rebuild Russia’s imperial frontiers or start a war with the United States, nor is he interested in or capable of reestablishing Russia as a global power like the Soviet Union was. Most analyses about “what Putin wants” miss the mark. Putin realizes that in an era when Russia’s internal challenges dramatically limit its ability to project power, Russia’s security depends not on rolling tanks across the borders of the NATO alliance, but instead on fracturing the West and paralyzing decision-making among Western leaders. Russia’s apparent success in exploiting these fissures within the Alliance is thus the greatest threat the United States and its NATO allies face from Moscow.


To read the full op-ed, visit the Small Wars Journal website. 

  • Video
    • March 27, 2025
    Will Donald Trump Take Greenland by Force?

    Trump’s comments have raised alarms in Greenland, particularly after US Vice President JD Vance announced he would visit the island. Greenland is rich in minerals, and it’s st...

    By Jim Townsend

  • Podcast
    • March 26, 2025
    Turkey’s Democratic Downturn

    Turkish democracy has come under fresh assault as the Erdoğan government arrested the leader of Turkey's largest opposition party and the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, an...

    By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Kate Johnston, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş & Soner Çağaptay

  • Commentary
    • March 26, 2025
    Sharper: Russia and the Axis of Upheaval

    Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine served as a dramatic catalyst for strengthening the global axis of upheaval. To sustain its war effort, Russia has imported Iranian weapons a...

    By Charles Horn

    • Video
    • March 25, 2025
    How Drones in Ukraine Are Reshaping War

    Samuel Bendett, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, joins The Cipher Brief to discuss the current situation of drones being used in Ukraine.Watc...

    By Samuel Bendett

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia