Secure America’s Tech Competitiveness

• The Trump administration must bolster America’s science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce and broader technological competitiveness—documented shortages of STEM expertise are a national security vulnerability.
• The Trump administration should add critical technology sectors like artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, and biotech to the Schedule A list, which would streamline the application process for employment-related green cards.
• The administration should clarify guidance for individuals with “extraordinary ability” seeking temporary work visas to increase the number of high-skilled individuals contributing to the U.S. economy.
• The administration should create mutually beneficial talent exchange programs, like the Quad STEM Fellowship, with allies and partners.

Technology is a vital battleground of the strategic competition between the United States and China, and access to STEM talent will determine which country ultimately prevails. The United States’ well-documented shortage of STEM expertise has become a national security vulnerability and, absent intervention, could needlessly help China gain a winning edge in critical and emerging technologies.¹ In the first 100 days in office, the Trump administration must act swiftly to bolster America’s STEM workforce and broader technological competitiveness.

Technology leadership is synonymous with geopolitical power in the 21st century. The country that achieves technology supremacy could gain decisive national and economic security advantages, from AI-enabled precision weapons and encryption-breaking quantum computers to biotechnologies that improve crop yields and mitigate pollution. The technology leader also will shape societal norms by determining whether these capabilities are used for good or ill, to promote or undermine democratic principles. For the United States, the stakes of losing the technology race, particularly to an authoritarian competitor such as China, are profound. Developing a strong STEM workforce is the surest way to stay ahead.

STEM talent—from non-degree–holding technicians to PhD-level engineers—is foundational to technology leadership. The STEM workforce not only drives the discovery, development, and deployment of technologies; it also supports their successful implementation.² The U.S. National Security Commission on AI identified STEM talent as the “most important driver of progress” in all facets of technological innovation and competitiveness.³ Academic research similarly indicates that “increasing the supply of human capital” is the best tool to propel scientific advancement.⁴

Both China and the United States appreciate the importance of STEM talent.⁵ Chinese President Xi Jinping refers to the STEM workforce as “the first resource for innovation” and has prioritized education reform and talent development.⁶ The Chinese government increased spending on STEM education more than 50 percent in the past decade, while initiatives like the Thousand Talents Program created incentives for Chinese-born STEM talent abroad to return home.⁷ In the United States, nearly every technology strategy document—from the National Security Memorandum on Artificial Intelligence to the CHIPS and Science Act—includes provisions to grow the STEM workforce and build critical skillsets.⁸ The U.S. government also established funding pathways like the U.S. Department of Commerce’s STEM Talent Challenge and the Department of Energy’s Career Skills Training Grant Program to support local and regional initiatives to foster STEM talent.⁹

The global technology competition is, at its core, a battle for human resources.¹⁰ Policies to enhance a country’s technological power are futile without a workforce to execute them. Domestic STEM talent, however, is in short supply. The United States will face a shortfall of 1.4 million technicians, computer scientists, and engineers in the next five years, and nearly 90 percent of technology industry leaders already identify talent recruitment and retention as a top challenge.¹¹ The consequences are evident across numerous critical technology areas. Quantum technology job openings exceed the number of qualified graduates to fill those positions by three times.¹² Skills shortages in the critical minerals sector prevent 71 percent of mining executives from hitting basic production targets, and more than half of the domestic mining workforce will retire by 2029.¹³ The semiconductor industry suffers comparable shortages across every talent group required to operate a fab—gaps that are only projected to worsen during implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act.¹⁴

China faces similar human resource challenges, but investments in STEM talent development appear to be paying off.¹⁵ China now leads the world in the number of annual STEM graduates and will cultivate a talent pool twice as large as the United States’ by 2025.¹⁶ The quality of Chinese STEM professionals is improving too—as of 2019, globally ranked Chinese universities awarded more than half of all Chinese STEM PhDs.¹⁷ In sum, the United States has no time to waste. The Trump administration must act now to spur similar growth in its own human resource base or risk falling behind in the race for global tech supremacy—perhaps irreversibly so.

Existing efforts to increase STEM talent in the United States—including tailored education programs, reskilling and upskilling initiatives, and public-private partnerships—are necessary but not sufficient.¹⁸ Though important, domestic workforce development often takes years and cannot mitigate skills gaps quickly enough.¹⁹ The Trump administration instead should leverage America’s asymmetric advantage—the ability to attract and retain high-skilled foreign talent.

Immigration has a profound impact on U.S. innovation.²⁰ Despite representing only a small fraction of U.S. investors, immigrants account for 36 percent of aggregate U.S. innovation over the past three decades.²¹ They are also cofounders of more than half of Silicon Valley tech companies.²² The United States has a strong record of retaining this talent as well—a strength that China does not share. Thanks to America’s openness, well-supported science community, and benefits packages, international STEM professionals consistently rate the United States as more appealing than China.²³

But the United States will squander its decisive foreign talent advantage without modifications to its outdated immigration system. International students increasingly choose not to enroll at U.S. universities, citing immigration-related challenges as the primary motivator behind their decision.²⁴ Sixty percent of U.S.-educated AI PhD students who left the country after graduation said that visa issues heavily influenced their choice.²⁵ Restrictive immigration policies handicap the United States’ ability to access the best STEM talent and win the global tech race. The Trump administration can take a few steps to right the immigration ship.

Direct the Department of Labor to add critical technology sectors to the Schedule A list. Schedule A, which has not been updated in 33 years, identifies industries that lack sufficient “able, willing, qualified and available” U.S. professionals such that hiring foreign professionals would not “adversely affect the wages and working conditions” of Americans “similarly employed.”²⁶ Adding critical technology fields like AI, quantum, and biotech to the Schedule A list could help fill critical job vacancies by streamlining the application process for employment-related green cards and exempting employers from lengthy recruitment and labor certification requirements.²⁷

Issue clarifying guidance for those seeking to acquire an O-1 temporary worker visa.²⁸ The O-1 visa, designed for individuals who possess “extraordinary ability” in the sciences (among other disciplines), is attractive because it is statutorily uncapped and can be renewed indefinitely. But confusion about eligibility, required documentation, and the selection process often dissuades STEM professionals from pursuing an O-1 opportunity.²⁹ The administration could dramatically increase the number of high-skilled individuals who receive O-1 visas by being more transparent about evaluation metrics or by offering application assistance.³⁰

Create mutually beneficial talent exchange programs with allies and partners. The Quad STEM Fellowship, which sponsors Japanese, Australian, and Indian students to study in the United States, is one example of a program that the administration could broaden and model.³¹ Opening the fellowship to more students and allowing fellows to study in additional countries would help ensure that the United States and its partners have a deep network of STEM talent and can counteract competitors’ recruiting efforts.³²

The Trump administration has no time to waste. China is rapidly producing the human capital required to become the global technology superpower. To reassert the United States’ tech dominance, the Trump administration should repair the broken immigration system that now undermines America’s historic advantage over China—the ability to attract and retain the world’s best STEM talent.