Sharper: Drones on the Battlefield

From the battlefields of Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine, the deployment of drones has become a critical element of modern warfare. Will the explosion of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) change the character of war? Throughout this year, experts at CNAS have released cutting-edge research on the proliferation of commercial and military drones across the world. And how to deploy and defend against drones is at the forefront of U.S. military thinking. This edition of Sharper includes a key dataset on drone proliferation that will serve as a primary resource for journalists and researchers, as well as a look back at the Center’s substantive work on this critical issue.

Features

Drone Proliferation Dataset

As drones become an increasingly significant factor on 21st century battlefields, the countries supplying cutting-edge drone technology are changing. While Israel and the United States have historically leveraged their domination of the military drone market to regulate proliferation, the entry of Iran, China, and Turkey has triggered a dramatic increase in global proliferation. CNAS created a dataset to support a larger body of work on drones so that it may serve as a primary resource for researchers, policymakers, and the media. It can be used to further analyze trends in global drone proliferation, transfers by drone type, and region-specific drone imports.

Developing Drone and Counter-Drone Capabilities with The Hon. Gabe Camarillo, Under Secretary of the Army

On May 17, CNAS hosted a virtual fireside chat with the Honorable Gabe Camarillo, under secretary of the Army, moderated by Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program. This conversation broadly discussed the Army’s development of drone and counter-drone capabilities, drawing on lessons the Army has learned from the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan

Drones have transformed battlefields in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, but in a companion report, Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine, Stacie Pettyjohn finds that today’s drones have not yet revolutionized warfare and only present an evolution to existing ways of fighting. This report details the ways that drones have proliferated and impacted warfare in recent conflicts, with an eye toward their likely effect on a potential future American effort to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Obstacles and Opportunities for Transformative Change

Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at CNAS, testified before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems to provide expert comments on the new Replicator initiative from the Department of Defense. “This effort is not only valuable,” said Dr. Scharre, “it is necessary if the U.S. military is to reverse its decades-long death spiral of rising costs and shrinking quantities for major weapons platforms.”

Commentaries

Drones Are Transforming the Battlefield in Ukraine but in an Evolutionary Fashion
March 2024

“Even large numbers of small drones cannot match the potency or volume of artillery fire and thus cannot substitute for howitzers,” wrote Stacie Pettyjohn in War on the Rocks. “Also, while drones provide affordable airpower, they have not replaced traditional air forces, nor have they been able to obtain air superiority. With this in mind, Washington should continue helping Ukraine improve its drone fleet, while being realistic about the impact this will have.”

How the West Can Match Russia in Drone Innovation
January 2024

“The focus of Western AI-enabled systems is on the left side of the observe, orient, decide, and act loop,” argue Samuel Bendett and Jane Pinelis in War on the Rocks. “But while the West prioritizes faster targeting and enhanced warfighter capabilities, Russia is attempting to make strides to automate the entire kill chain. In short, Russia’s aggressive military and volunteer-driven AI use stands in contrast to the United States’ cautious and responsible, if under-resourced, approach. Now, the U.S. Department of Defense needs to urgently prioritize AI assurance to ethically compete in the dynamic AI battlefield.”

The Dawn of Drone Diplomacy
December 2022

“A new era of arms trade is emerging, in which new exporters such as Iran and Turkey are displacing traditional weapons suppliers and are using drone exports to extend influence beyond their borders,” observes Erik Lin-Greenberg in Foreign Affairs. “These exports threaten Washington’s influence and the security of its partners. To keep ahead, U.S. policymakers should help allies build drone programs while developing approaches to counter the threat of rival drones.”

In the News

Commentary and analysis from Paul Scharre, Stacie Pettyjohn, Robert O. Work, Emily Kilcrease, and Samuel Bendett.

About the Sharper Series

The CNAS Sharper series features curated analysis and commentary from CNAS experts on the most critical challenges in U.S. foreign policy. From the future of America's relationship with China to the state of U.S. sanctions policy and more, each collection draws on the reports, interviews, and other commentaries produced by experts across the Center to explore how America can strengthen its competitive edge.