Sharper: Emerging Technology

Emerging technologies are reshaping U.S. economic competitiveness and national security. These technologies offer unprecedented opportunities for growth, but also introduce national security threats, including vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, new military applications, and misuse by malicious actors. As China aggressively pursues dominance in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology, the United States faces dual challenges. It must accelerate innovation to remain a technology leader, while also securing these technologies against national security threats. CNAS experts are sharpening the conversation on how emerging technologies shape global power. Continue reading this edition of Sharper to explore CNAS expert ideas and recommendations.

Features

“Memorandum on Advancing the United States’ Leadership in Artificial Intelligence”

In this edition of Noteworthy, researchers from across CNAS dissect the recently released Memorandum on Advancing the United States’ Leadership in Artificial Intelligence; Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to Fulfill National Security Objectives; and Fostering the Safety, Security, and Trustworthiness of Artificial Intelligence from President Biden. Experts make in-line comments on the most notable statements on the administration's attempt to balance advanced artificial intelligence technology with national security and human rights.

The Quest for Qubits: Assessing U.S.-China Competition in Quantum Computing

Amid climate crises, widespread food insecurity, pandemics, and countless other societal challenges, the new quantum revolution promises to benefit nearly every facet of modern life. Quantum technologies, with their unparalleled speed and processing power, could unlock transformative innovations in a range of industries, from energy and agriculture to medicine and finance. At the same time, however, irresponsible actors could use quantum technologies to break encryption, enable mass surveillance, and design new weapons systems. In short, global advancements in quantum technology have profound implications for U.S. economic and national security.

U.S. Chip Controls and the Future of AI Compute

Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever-expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the world.

Secure, Governable Chips: Using On-Chip Mechanisms to Manage National Security Risks from AI & Advanced Computing

Broadly capable AI systems, built and deployed using specialized chips, are becoming an engine of economic growth and scientific progress. At the same time, these systems also could be used by irresponsible actors to enable mass surveillance, conduct cyberattacks, and design novel biological weapons. This makes securing and governing the supply chain for AI chips important for mitigating risks to U.S. national security. But today’s semiconductor export controls are lackluster as a stand-alone solution. To be effective, they need to be far-reaching, which harms the competitiveness of U.S. firms, risks the “de-Americanization” of chip supply chains, and risks alienating commercial AI developers and partner nations. Far-reaching controls are also hard to enforce: AI chip smuggling is already happening today and could significantly grow in volume over the coming years.

Biotech Matters: A U.S. National Security Imperative

Now more than ever, the international community needs what emerging biotechnologies promise to do—for health, climate, energy security, agriculture, supply chain resilience, and more. And to meet the moment, the United States must reassert its biotech leadership, not only for its own economic and national security, but to ensure that democratic principles underpin the global biorevolution.

Commentaries

Mind the Gap: America Needs an Office of Technology Net Assessment
February 2024

“Today, there is a grave and growing gap in Washington’s long-term analysis: technology competition. Although the ONA has done laudable analyses of key technology trends, its focus on how those trends specifically affect the U.S. military misses the ever-expanding role technology plays in national and economic security,” Vivek Chilukuri writes in Lawfare. “And within the ONA, technology competes with many other analytic priorities, even as technology leadership becomes more central to national power and the U.S.-China strategic competition in particular.”

To Win the Tech Race, America Needs High-Skilled Immigration Reform
December 2023

“Technology is a central front in the strategic competition between the U.S. and China. Beijing and Washington both understand that whichever nation leads in key emerging technologies could unlock decisive advantages — from an advanced AI that can supercharge battlefield decision-making to a quantum computer that can unlock every encrypted secret,” Vivek Chilukuri and Sam Howell argue in The Messenger. “If the dangers of falling behind in the global tech race are obvious, so is the best way for America to stay ahead: high-skilled immigration reform.

Compiling Advantage: Unlocking the Competitive Power of Software Adaptability
March 2024

“As the United States finds itself engaged in a long-term strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China, America’s success hinges on the US military’s ability to rapidly adopt and adapt technology in response to evolving threats and opportunities,“ Ellen Lord writes for The Hudson Institute. “The Department of Defense (DoD) needs to harness the power of software to quickly assemble, effectively deploy, and continually update its military capabilities. If it fails to do so, America risks ceding the military advantage to its adversaries.”

In the News

Commentary and analysis from Geoffrey Gertz, Sam Howell, and Adam Tong.