March 26, 2025
Sharper: Russia and the Axis of Upheaval
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine served as a dramatic catalyst for strengthening the global axis of upheaval. To sustain its war effort, Russia has imported Iranian weapons and North Korean troops, and in the face of sanctions, its economy has become increasingly reliant on China. However, negotiations between the United States and Russia over the future of Ukraine could recast the future of great power competition and complicate resistance to this growing axis. CNAS experts are sharpening the conversation on Russia’s central role in the axis of upheaval. Continue reading this edition of Sharper to learn more.
Features
Brussels Sprouts | Can Ukraine and Europe Win Alone?
Ukrainian and European officials are increasingly considering military solutions absent significant American assistance. Franz-Stefan Gady and Gustav Gressel, leading experts on Ukraine’s military capabilities, joined Brussels Sprouts to analyze the status of the Ukrainian battlefield and assess how a withdrawal of U.S. support could reshape the conflict.
Report | Averting AI Armageddon: U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry at the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence
Military cooperation between Russia and China is growing steadily, further complicating an increasingly volatile nuclear order. China remains committed to modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenal, and Russia and China could both integrate artificial intelligence into their arsenals. It is essential for policymakers to be aware of the risks posed by the AI-nuclear nexus. In this report, Jacob Stokes, Colin Kahl, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Nicholas Lokker lay out how the United States can address these risks.
Transatlantic Security
Can Ukraine and Europe Win Alone? with Gustav Gressel and Franz-Stefan Gady
The Trump administration began negotiations with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia last week, and its exclusion of both Kyiv and its European backers from the table cast doubt...
Indo-Pacific Security
Averting AI Armageddon
In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitat...
Commentary | Putin’s Point of No Return
More than three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin appears more committed than ever to defeating Ukraine. Small victories on the battlefield have been paired with an increasingly fractious relationship between Ukraine and the United States. In Foreign Affairs, Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman argue that the U.S. and Europe must invest now in defeating Russia, or face an emboldened expansionist Russia in the future.
Around the Center | Axis of Upheaval
Interested in learning more about CNAS work on the axis of upheaval? CNAS experts are studying the intricacies of the relationship between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, and developing policy solutions on how the United States should resist their influence.
Transatlantic Security
Putin’s Point of No Return
The United States and Europe must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later....
Axis of Upheaval
Today a new Axis of Upheaval—the increasing alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape. Cooperation among the fo...
Commentary
Featuring commentary from Jonathan Lord, Celeste Wallander, Kate Johnston, and Nicholas Lokker
Transatlantic Security
Don’t Trust Russia to Mediate the Iran Nuclear Deal
Preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon is of critical importance to U.S. security and the security of Israel and partners throughout the Middle East....
Transatlantic Security
The Key to Ukraine’s Survival
No one country in Europe has the financial and industrial resources to replace the United States, but together they can add up to formidable support to Ukraine....
Transatlantic Security
Russia Wants a New World Order
Undermining the cohesion and enlargement of the EU and NATO is part of Moscow’s desire to enhance its status as a great power, discredit key pillars of the liberal internation...
In the News
Featuring analysis from Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Emily Kilcrease
Transatlantic Security
Far From Giving Ground, Putin Digs In With His Demands on Ukraine
When the Kremlin released its summary of President Vladimir V. Putin’s call Tuesday with President Trump, one thing was unmistakable: The Russian leader hadn’t retreated from ...
Transatlantic Security
If Trump Wants New Pressure on Moscow, Oil and Gas Is 'Only Thing Left'
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the United States can do "devastating" things to Russia's economy to put pressure on Moscow to accept a peace deal with Ukraine....
Transatlantic Security
China Backs Iran in Nuclear Talks, Slams ‘Threat of Force’ From the West
China and Russia joined Iran on Friday in urging an end to Western sanctions after President Trump called this week for nuclear talks with Tehran, with both countries denounci...
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