March 17, 2025
The Key to Ukraine’s Survival
The United States’ sudden, although ultimately temporary, suspension of all security assistance to Ukraine in early March raised alarms about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. A lasting suspension of the aid would certainly have changed the course of the war. But even a complete stop to U.S. assistance would not have reversed the progress that Ukrainians have made over the past three years. With its existing stocks and production, Ukraine would be able to sustain its defense for months on its own. Although U.S. aid is again flowing, at least for now, Ukraine does not need to surrender if Washington slows or pauses its support again.
But the pause in U.S. aid served as a dramatic wake-up call: the most crucial factor in determining how long and how effectively Ukraine will be able to defend against Russian attacks in the coming months will be the extent to which European powers step up to fill in any gaps.
No one country in Europe has the financial and industrial resources to replace the United States, but together they can add up to formidable support to Ukraine.
No one country in Europe has the financial and industrial resources to replace the United States, but together they can add up to formidable support to Ukraine. With or without Washington, European powers will need to surge financing, procurement, and production of Ukraine’s most urgent resupply needs: ammunition and air defense interceptors. Denmark, Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and many others are already doing so. Over the past three years, Europe has increasingly provided Ukraine with capabilities that the United States has not, such as maritime strike assets, sustainable battle tanks, short- and medium-range air defense interceptors, cybersecurity systems, and industrial components. At the same time, Ukraine’s own production of strike drones and ammunition has expanded, accounting now for at least 40 percent of Ukraine’s daily operational requirements. Ukraine has also proved adept at fighting asymmetrically and capitalizing on Russian disadvantages, as demonstrated by its use of drones to find and destroy Russian units and equipment. Moreover, as Russian tactics have adapted, Ukraine has been ahead of the curve in building more lethal and silent drones within months and even weeks, rendering Russia’s adaptations rapidly out of date.
Even with limited U.S. assistance, Ukraine could, with Europe’s support, still achieve advantages that would strengthen its hand against Russia and thwart the Kremlin’s intention to outlast Ukraine and force Kyiv to surrender to Putin’s demands.
Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Will Trump Reshape the American Military
Podcast
Last month, the Trump administration carried out a large-scale firing of senior military leaders, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the chief of Naval opera...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Russia’s Wartime Economy: Resilient or on the Edge of Collapse?
Podcast
Since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia's economy has proved to be robust despite sanctions, inflation and labour shortages. But how long can it last? Charles Pelleg...
By Richard Connolly
-
Don’t Trust Russia to Mediate the Iran Nuclear Deal
Commentary
Preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon is of critical importance to U.S. security and the security of Israel and partners throughout the Middle East....
By Jonathan Lord
-
Ziemba on Ukraine Peace Talks, Sanctions & OPEC
Video
Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) speaks with Bloomberg TV’s Joumanna Bercetche on Horizons Middle East and Africa about...
By Rachel Ziemba
