December 27, 2019

The U.S.-Chinese Trade War Just Entered Phase 2

The Trump administration’s “phase one” trade deal with China may mark the end of the first chapter of the trade conflict between the United States and China, which saw Washington embrace a confrontational approach. But even if China meets its commitments under that agreement, the deal will not mean the conclusion of the broader competition between the two powers. The forces of geopolitical rivalry and the sharp differences between China’s state capitalist model of economic development and the U.S. economic system are too great. Instead, the deal will mark a pivot to a second phase of economic competition, one which will be fought with export and import controls, investment restrictions, and sanctions rather than with tariffs.

Over the past two years, Washington has been quietly building a legal and regulatory architecture for this campaign. In 2018, U.S. Congress enacted legislation to enhance controls on the export of emerging technologies, such as advanced robotics and artificial intelligence, and bolster reviews of foreign investment in the United States. In November 2019, the Trump administration and Congress took steps to block U.S. companies from using Chinese telecommunications network equipment in the United States. There is increasing discussion in Washington about additional restrictions on business and investment relations between the United States and China, such as limits on federal employee retirement fund investments in China.

Read the full article in Foreign Policy.

  • Commentary
    • The Washington Post
    • April 21, 2025
    Trump’s Crackdown on Foreign Students Is a Gift to China

    When top global talent no longer sees America as a stable, long-term bet — in light of both visa and research funding insecurity — many will vote with their feet....

    By Jordan Schneider

  • Video
    • April 1, 2025
    Trump Tariffs: How Will U.S. Plans Reshape the Global Economy?

    Donald Trump says he's already decided the tariffs he will impose on countries that export goods to America, including the United Kingdom. Channel 4 hears from Emily Kilcrease...

    By Emily Kilcrease

  • Reports
    • March 18, 2025
    Assessing China’s Nuclear Decision-Making

    China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. This policy brief analyzes that trend by presenting three ...

    By Jacob Stokes

  • Podcast
    • February 19, 2025
    Edward Fishman on the Age of Economic Warfare

    In the latest episode of the Sanctions Space Podcast, Justine is joined by Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare and an adjunct ...

    By Edward Fishman

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia