June 01, 2023
The Unintended Consequences of Economic Sanctions
Economic sanctions are being used more and more often but also face more questions of effectiveness, especially as they are used on larger and larger targets. The recent anniversary of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted considerable analysis of the effectiveness of economic sanctions. In the Russia case, sanctions are clearly having an economic impact, reducing Russia’s economic and policy choices, resulting in a smaller but more centralized economy that is increasingly reliant on a smaller number of trading partners. However, there are no signs that the war is coming to an end. The Russian sanctions highlight two linked trends—the economic impacts of sanctions may build over time, impairing future investment and growth, while at the same time workarounds develop, creating resiliency. To maintain similar levels of pressure, new sanctions are required, often creating a whack-a-mole situation.
Since 2022, the risks of splintering among developed economies seem to have receded, at least temporarily and with respect to Russia.
While sanctions clearly bring economic stress and political impacts, including potential consolidations of power within the target governments, there is less evidence about their ability to bring behavioral change, as even policymakers like Janet Yellen seem recently to have pondered. Policymakers in the U.S. have begun to shift away from a prior assessment that sanctions are meant to prompt policy change, and more applications seem designed to degrade and limit the access of malign actors to the global economy. Russia is a case in point.
Read the full article from Lawfare.
More from CNAS
-
How America Wasted Its Most Powerful Economic Weapon
Commentary
As Donald Trump embarks on his much-anticipated peace negotiations, they will provide important leverage—Putin will be desperate to recover them, while Ukrainian President Vol...
By Edward Fishman
-
Edward Fishman on the Age of Economic Warfare
Podcast
In the latest episode of the Sanctions Space Podcast, Justine is joined by Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare and an adjunct ...
By Edward Fishman
-
What Have U.S. Sanctions on Russia Achieved Since the War in Ukraine Began?
Podcast
Three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, what have U.S. sanctions achieved? NPR talks to Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the ...
By Edward Fishman
-
Ziemba: Sanctions Enforcement on Russia To Ease Up
Video
Rachel Ziemba, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), speaks with Bloomberg TV’s Joumanna Bercetche on the Horizons Middle East and Africa ...
By Rachel Ziemba
