June 01, 2023
The Unintended Consequences of Economic Sanctions
Economic sanctions are being used more and more often but also face more questions of effectiveness, especially as they are used on larger and larger targets. The recent anniversary of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted considerable analysis of the effectiveness of economic sanctions. In the Russia case, sanctions are clearly having an economic impact, reducing Russia’s economic and policy choices, resulting in a smaller but more centralized economy that is increasingly reliant on a smaller number of trading partners. However, there are no signs that the war is coming to an end. The Russian sanctions highlight two linked trends—the economic impacts of sanctions may build over time, impairing future investment and growth, while at the same time workarounds develop, creating resiliency. To maintain similar levels of pressure, new sanctions are required, often creating a whack-a-mole situation.
Since 2022, the risks of splintering among developed economies seem to have receded, at least temporarily and with respect to Russia.
While sanctions clearly bring economic stress and political impacts, including potential consolidations of power within the target governments, there is less evidence about their ability to bring behavioral change, as even policymakers like Janet Yellen seem recently to have pondered. Policymakers in the U.S. have begun to shift away from a prior assessment that sanctions are meant to prompt policy change, and more applications seem designed to degrade and limit the access of malign actors to the global economy. Russia is a case in point.
Read the full article from Lawfare.
More from CNAS
-
Sharper: Trump 2.0
Commentary
Donald Trump's return to the White House is widely expected to reshape America's global priorities. With personnel choices and policy agendas that mark a significant break fro...
By Charles Horn & Gwendolyn Nowaczyk
-
Trump 2.0's Economic Security Agenda
Podcast
Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export co...
By Emily Kilcrease & Geoffrey Gertz
-
Biden’s Gloves Can Finally Come Off to Help Trump End the Ukraine War
Commentary
The Biden administration’s reasons to treat Russian oil with kid gloves, in other words, no longer apply....
By Edward Fishman
-
European Security and Defense under Trump 2.0 with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend
Podcast
Max and Donatienne are joined by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend, hosts of the Brussels Sprouts podcast at the Center for a New American Security, to discuss the implic...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
