September 15, 2022
Time Is Running Out to Defend Taiwan
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it abundantly clear that “reunifying” Taiwan with mainland China is a legacy issue for him, something he intends to accomplish on his watch through political and economic means or, if necessary, through military force. Right now, he is preoccupied with the COVID-19 crisis, the slowing growth of the Chinese economy, and the upcoming 20th Party Congress, where he hopes to secure a third term as chair of the Chinese Communist Party.
The U.S. military’s most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s.
But once these immediate concerns are addressed, it is possible that sometime in the next five years Xi will consider taking Taiwan by force, either because nonmilitary efforts at reunification have fallen short or because he believes his chances of success will diminish if he waits and U.S. military capabilities grow.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Germany's New Defense Agenda
On April 9th, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, secured a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats following his party’s vi...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
The Department of Defense’s Breakthrough Nuclear Moment Risks Slipping Away
Unless they act, the Department of Defense’s breakthrough nuclear moment may vanish before it really happens....
By Will Rogers
-
Trump ‘Humiliated’ as Putin Sends Clear Message That He Doesn’t Care About US
"Putin is not playing ball." Putin's Palm Sunday attack on Sumy is "embarrassing for the White House" as it comes just days after Steve Witkoff met with the Kremlin, says adju...
By Jim Townsend
-
The Hidden Past and Uncertain Future of the U.S. and Ukraine with Celeste Wallander
Under the Trump administration, U.S. support for Ukraine is no longer guaranteed. President Trump's pause on aid and intelligence to Ukraine in March may have been brief, but ...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend & Celeste Wallander