September 15, 2022
Time Is Running Out to Defend Taiwan
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it abundantly clear that “reunifying” Taiwan with mainland China is a legacy issue for him, something he intends to accomplish on his watch through political and economic means or, if necessary, through military force. Right now, he is preoccupied with the COVID-19 crisis, the slowing growth of the Chinese economy, and the upcoming 20th Party Congress, where he hopes to secure a third term as chair of the Chinese Communist Party.
The U.S. military’s most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s.
But once these immediate concerns are addressed, it is possible that sometime in the next five years Xi will consider taking Taiwan by force, either because nonmilitary efforts at reunification have fallen short or because he believes his chances of success will diminish if he waits and U.S. military capabilities grow.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
It’s Time for a True Industrial Strategy for American National Security
For an industrial strategy to work, the president must make it a White House priority that pulls together all elements of national power....
By Becca Wasser & Mara Rudman
-
What Might We Expect in Foreign Policy During a Second Trump Term?
As the 2024 presidential elections draw nearer, it’s becoming increasingly urgent to understand the potential implications for U.S. foreign policy. This week, Brussels Sprouts...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Kate Johnston
-
Brussels Sprouts Live: NATO in the American Heartland
NATO marked its 75th anniversary this year – a testament to the strength and continued relevance of the alliance. Celebrations have been muted however, due to the ongoing conf...
By Mark Newton, Anniken Huitfeldt, Maria Markowska, John Deni & Rebecca Moore
-
Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte
One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. With the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict, the B...
By Jonathan Lord, Hanna Notte, Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend