January 07, 2022
What It Will Take to Deter Russia
Nearly eight years after Russia invaded Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea, triggering a raft of international sanctions, the United States and its allies find themselves again trying to figure out how to deter Moscow from menacing Ukraine—if not launching a full-scale invasion—in hopes of gaining new Western concessions. Talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have begun in earnest, with Putin putting forth maximalist demands that could become either the starting point for protracted negotiations that meet somewhere in the middle or, if left unmet, the pretext for a major escalation in the ongoing conflict.
Economic sanctions alone, no matter how personally painful they may be to Putin and his cronies, will not be enough
U.S. and European leaders have warned Putin publicly and privately that should he again launch military forces into Ukraine, they will not hesitate to expand sanctions against Russia. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reported that during a two-hour videoconference with Putin on December 7, Biden warned the Russian leader that “things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now.” Biden’s threat to his Russian interlocutors left little room for misunderstanding.
Yet economic sanctions alone, no matter how personally painful they may be to Putin and his cronies, will not be enough to prevent the Kremlin from using tactics that have proved effective in the past.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
Putin’s Point of No Return
Commentary
The United States and Europe must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later....
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman
-
What Can Europe do in Syria?
Podcast
After 54 years of brutal rule in Syria, the al-Assad family’s reign came to an end last week. Following 13 years of devastating civil war, which saw over a million refugees fl...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Trump and the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman and Robert Lee
Podcast
More than 1000 days into the War in Ukraine, questions about continued support for the Ukrainian effort and the prospect of a negotiated settlement in the months to come have ...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Rob Lee & Mike Kofman
-
The Future of Russia and China in Central Asia
Podcast
Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared object...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
