March 05, 2024
What NATO allies must do to prepare for Russian aggression
The U.S. has long framed the invasion of Ukraine as a strategic failure for Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared it as such in June 2023, saying: “Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been a strategic failure, greatly diminishing Russia’s power, its interests, and its influence for years to come.”
And yet, in the last two months, a growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia against countries along NATO’s eastern flank.
In order to fix all this, the U.S. and its allies need to build a shared understanding of the threat that opportunistic aggression poses to NATO.
The chief of Estonia’s intelligence service said in February: “Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so.” Meanwhile, the Danish and German defense ministers have similarly warned that Russia could attack NATO in less than a decade.
The critical question now is: Does Russia pose a credible threat to NATO?
Currently, there are numerous factors working to dissuade Russia from challenging NATO, but there’s one scenario that stands out as a plausible pathway to conflict — and that’s if the Kremlin comes to underestimate Western, and most importantly U.S., resolve to fight under certain conditions.
Read the full article from POLITICO Europe.
More from CNAS
-
Brussels Sprouts Live: NATO in the American Heartland
NATO marked its 75th anniversary this year – a testament to the strength and continued relevance of the alliance. Celebrations have been muted however, due to the ongoing conf...
By Mark Newton, Anniken Huitfeldt, Maria Markowska, John Deni & Rebecca Moore
-
Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte
One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. With the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict, the B...
By Jonathan Lord, Hanna Notte, Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Exploiting Russian Weakness: Moldova and Georgia at a Crossroads
Later this month, both Moldova and Georgia will hold crucial elections with the potential to profoundly shape their futures. As Russia attempts to reassert dominance along its...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Nicholas Lokker
-
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and the Axis of Upheaval
On the Russian Roulette podcast from CSIS, Andrea Kendall-Taylor discusses the rise of cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, in what she has dubbed 'the ax...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Max Bergmann & Maria Snegovaya