December 29, 2021
What Putin Learned From the Soviet Collapse
When the Soviet Union dissolved 30 years ago this month, on December 25, 1991, its end followed decades of economic dysfunction. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, hoping to implement reforms, referred to the 1970s and 1980s as zastoi, the era of stagnation. Yet though he recognized the problem, Gorbachev couldn’t save the ailing socialist system. Indeed, his failed attempt at systematic reform ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s collapse.
On the surface, Russia’s economy appears similarly dysfunctional today. Per capita incomes have not improved over the past decade. Russia’s share of global output has declined since 2008. And large sectors of the economy remain technologically backward or in desperate need of modernization. The general economic state could once again be described as “stagnation.”
Just as Communist Party leaders in Beijing have studied Soviet history in an effort to avert its repetition, so have leaders in the Kremlin.
Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government are unlikely to suffer the same fate as their Soviet forebears.
They have learned the lessons of failed Soviet attempts to reverse decline in the 1970s and 1980s, and many key attributes of the Russian economy and Russian economic policy reflect a desire to avoid repeating the Soviet experience under Gorbachev. As the Russian economist Sergei Guriev recently remarked, “Russia’s macroeconomic policy is much more conservative, inflation is under control, there are large reserves, a balanced budget and no external debt,” and as a market economy Russia is “much more efficient and resilient” than the Soviet Union.
Read the full article from Foreign Affairs.
More from CNAS
-
What Might We Expect in Foreign Policy During a Second Trump Term?
As the 2024 presidential elections draw nearer, it’s becoming increasingly urgent to understand the potential implications for U.S. foreign policy. This week, Brussels Sprouts...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Kate Johnston
-
Brussels Sprouts Live: NATO in the American Heartland
NATO marked its 75th anniversary this year – a testament to the strength and continued relevance of the alliance. Celebrations have been muted however, due to the ongoing conf...
By Mark Newton, Anniken Huitfeldt, Maria Markowska, John Deni & Rebecca Moore
-
Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte
One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. With the region teetering on the brink of broader conflict, the B...
By Jonathan Lord, Hanna Notte, Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Jim Townsend
-
Sharper: Allies and Partners
Amid intensifying geopolitical challenges, the United States is finding new ways to address security issues by cultivating and strengthening alliances and partnerships. How ca...
By Gwendolyn Nowaczyk & Charles Horn