October 04, 2024

Exploiting Russian Weakness: Moldova and Georgia at a Crossroads

By: Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nicholas Lokker

Later this month, both Moldova and Georgia will hold crucial elections with the potential to profoundly shape their futures. As Russia attempts to reassert dominance along its periphery amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s actions have triggered different geopolitical reorientations in different countries across the region. Moldova and Georgia illustrate this two-directional trend—while the Georgian government has signaled more alignment with Russia, Moldova is strengthening its ties with the West. However, these shifts may not be final, and the elections this October could either cement or reverse their current trajectories. Given these stakes, Russia has already taken steps to interfere in these elections, and could employ additional coercive tactics threatening stability along NATO’s eastern border in the future. Yet this moment also presents an opportunity for the United States and European Union— while the war in Ukraine continues, the transatlantic partners can take advantage of Russia’s present weakness to rid the region of corrosive Russian influence and more firmly anchor Moldova and Georgia in the good governance, democracy, and economic prosperity that are cornerstones of the Euro- Atlantic space.

Laura Thornton is the senior director of global democracy programs at the McCain Institute. Prior to this, she served as senior vice president of democracy at the German Marshal Fund (GMF), and oversaw GMF’s transatlantic trusts.

Denis Cenusa is the European Integration Program Director at the Moldovan think tank, Expert-Grup and a lecturer at the University of Giessen.

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