June 13, 2016

Flashpoints, Escalation, and A2/AD

In this paper, CNAS Senior Fellow Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper examines three prominent escalation scenarios in the Asia-Pacific in the context of China’s developing area-denial/anti-access capability: a seizure of the Southwest Island Chain in the East China Sea; a seizure of the Spratly Island features; and an outright invasion of Taiwan. Dr. Rapp-Hooper analyzes the differences between deliberate, inadvertent, and accidental escalations to advise policymakers on how to proscribe adversaries from achieving escalation dominance by exploiting asymmetric vulnerabilities. Dr. Rapp Hooper concludes that the best counter to deliberate and inadvertent escalations are tailored deterrence and clarified escalation thresholds respectively.

Author

Mira Rapp-Hooper

Former Adjunct Senior Fellow, Asia-Pacific Security Program

Mira Rapp-Hooper is a former Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Security Program at CNAS. She is formerly a Fellow with the CSIS Asia Program and Director of the CSIS...

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