May 16, 2016
Global Perspectives: A Drone Saturated Future
Drones are rapidly proliferating. Over 90 countries and non-state groups operate drones today, and even more are certain to do so in coming years.1 These actors are beginning to employ drones in novel ways according to their own interests, opportunities, and constraints. As drones move beyond a niche capability used for surveillance and strike to an integral component of modern militaries, they could have an unanticipated impact on crisis stability, escalation dynamics, and norms regarding state sovereignty. What are the consequences of a world in which many actors – state and non-state alike – have access to drones? How will drones be used and what challenges should the United States prepare for? To help policymakers think through the implications of drone proliferation, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) launched the World of Proliferated Drones project, a joint undertaking of the 20YY Future of Warfare Initiative and the Technology and National Security Program.
It would be naïve to assume that the future will look just like the past or that other actors will use drones just as the United States does. Understanding the contours of an increasingly drone-saturated world thus requires an understanding of how others perceive the issues and challenges surrounding drone use. For this reason, it is critical to examine the perspectives of international drone experts across a range of regions and countries.
CNAS has commissioned 10 essays featuring views from France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam. These essays cover the two regions with the fastest-growing investments in drones – Asia and Europe – as well as the largest drone exporter in the world – Israel. While not an exhaustive survey of every country or every expert within these countries, the essays provide a valuable sampling of expert views in countries that are in various stages of incorporating drones into their militaries. CNAS additionally commissioned a response to each essay in order to further illuminate the regional and international dynamics of drone proliferation.
Authors
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Kelley Sayler
Former Fellow, Defense Strategies and Assessments Program
Kelley Sayler is a former Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where she worked with the Defense Strategies and Assessments Program and the Future of Warfa...
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Ben FitzGerald
Adjunct Senior Fellow, Defense Program
Ben FitzGerald is a partner at Lupa, a private investment firm, and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). At Lupa he leads the firm’s inve...
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Michael Horowitz
Former Adjunct Senior Fellow, Technology and National Security Program
Michael C. Hororwitz is a former Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Technology and National Security Program at CNAS. He is currently the Director of Emerging Capabilities Policy Of...
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Paul Scharre
Executive Vice President and Director of Studies
Paul Scharre is the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at CNAS. He is the award-winning author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence...
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