The Quad Plus the Philippines

While this paper does not propose the formal expansion of Quad membership, it does examine opportunities for increasing informal engagement and cooperation between the Quad countries and the Philippines (Quad Plus) with the aim of promoting regional stability. It examines how enhancing dialogue and cooperation among the five nations on maritime security and naval activities could help prevent conflict in the South China Sea by raising the costs of PRC maritime aggression. It then evaluates the opportunities for Quad Plus cooperation on economic and technology issues to reduce regional dependencies on China that enable Beijing to employ economic coercion in service of its global security objectives. Reducing China’s ability to use economic coercion in its regional relationships would also help mitigate the chances of regional conflict by denying China additional levers to press its expansive maritime and territorial claims. Finally, the paper presents U.S. policy recommendations for implementing a Quad Plus agenda that enhances multinational deterrence and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the next several years.

Findings Summary

Involving the Philippines in Quad activities, especially naval and maritime cooperation, could help deter PRC aggression in the South China Sea and prevent the escalation of military tensions that could result in conflict involving the threat or use of WMD. By presenting a united front in support of the Philippines and against maritime aggression in the South China Sea, the Quad would raise the costs for China to continue its dangerous and escalatory actions. These joint activities could include increasing the number and regularity of joint maritime patrols in the South China Sea, enhancing maritime domain awareness, countering PRC disinformation and misinformation, sharing best practices to counter PRC influence operations, and coordinating public messaging regarding China’s maritime aggression. If tensions in the South China Sea continue to build, it may be advantageous to hold an official Quad Plus dialogue with the Philippines at the senior working diplomatic level to send a clear signal to Beijing that any aggression toward the Philippines will be met with a coordinated response from the Quad.

Peacetime contingency planning and coordination among the Quad nations and the Philippines should also prepare them to collectively deal with a potential crisis in the Indo-Pacific, should deterrence fail. Ultimately, a coordinated response from the five nations could be critical to defusing the situation and preventing conflict from erupting or escalating.

Enhanced collaboration among the Quad countries and the Philippines could also help develop alternative and resilient supply chains that would reduce opportunities for China to employ economic coercion to achieve its security objectives. With the world’s fourth largest copper reserves, fifth largest nickel deposits, and an estimated $1 trillion worth of untapped gold, zinc, and silver reserves, the Philippines is poised to play a role in reducing global dependence on China for critical minerals, if the government can attract more Philippine private sector and foreign investment into the exploration, extraction, and processing of its abundant mineral resources.³ Quad investment in the processing of Philippine minerals, in particular, could facilitate the environmentally sustainable growth of the sector and help curb China’s ability to leverage its dominance in critical minerals for geostrategic advantage.

Similarly, the Philippines’ expected growth in the semiconductor industry (10–15 percent annually over the next three years) means it can play a role in the Quad’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, announced in September 2021, which aims to identify vulnerabilities in global semiconductor supply chains and bolster their resilience.⁴ Given the role of semiconductors in developing advanced weapons systems, ensuring resilient semiconductor supply chains through cooperation with partners and allies, like the Philippines, will contribute to U.S. national security and integrated deterrence.